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Researchers from the Nanofabrication, Optoelectronics and Energy Applications (NOA) group at the International Iberian Nanotechnology Laboratory (INL), together with collaborators from the University of Aveiro, have published a new study exploring how climate change may influence photovoltaic (PV) energy generation in Portugal over the coming decades.
Published in Energy Conversion and Management: X, the work introduces an advanced temporal downscaling framework capable of reconstructing hourly solar irradiance and meteorological data from coarse-resolution CMIP6 climate projections. This enables more accurate simulations of PV system performance under future climate scenarios and provides a pathway toward higher-fidelity renewable energy assessments.
The study, with first author Pablo Montesino Fernandez, investigates the long-term performance of three representative photovoltaic system configurations in Portugal:
- south-facing fixed-tilt monofacial systems,
- vertical bifacial systems,
- and north–south single-axis tracking bifacial systems.
Using advanced stochastic irradiance reconstruction methods, harmonic temperature downscaling, and physically based PV simulations using pvlib, the researchers evaluated historical climate conditions (1995–2014) alongside future mid-century and end-century scenarios under several CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).
The results show that projected changes in annual PV yield across Portugal are expected to remain relatively moderate, ranging approximately between −5% and +6%, depending on the emission scenario and period considered. Intermediate scenarios indicate slight increases in photovoltaic production, particularly in northern and central Portugal, while stronger warming under high-emission scenarios may lead to modest reductions in energy yield due to increased module operating temperatures.
An important outcome of the study is the observation that, although the three photovoltaic configurations exhibit different absolute performances, their relative response to climate change remains very similar. This suggests that future PV system selection will continue to depend more strongly on economic, architectural, and site-specific considerations than on climate resilience alone.
Beyond the Portuguese case study, the proposed framework offers a transferable methodology for evaluating the climate resilience of photovoltaic systems in other regions. The work contributes to ongoing efforts to improve long-term planning strategies for renewable energy infrastructures under evolving climatic conditions.
The publication also highlights the interdisciplinary collaboration between climate modelling and photovoltaic energy research, reinforcing NOA’s activities in sustainable energy systems, advanced modelling, and next-generation solar technologies.
An outcome of our ATE PRR project.
Publication:
Hourly temporal downscaling of CMIP6 data for photovoltaic energy modelling under climate change: A case study for Portugal
Energy Conversion and Management: X (2026